What Makes Oil Price Forecasting Similar to Billiards?

There is a saying that economists are trying to predict oil price movements so that meteorologists do not feel ashamed of their work. However, there is a grain of truth in this joke. NES visiting professor Alexander Malanichev who has been studying commodity prices for 30 years, talks about forecasting methods, accuracy of forecasts and ways to improve it. Spoiler: the most important thing is to consider fundamental factors and to listen to the market signals.



The Lessons of the 1970s Help the World in the 2020

The world is experiencing "the first truly global energy crisis," International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said on the release day of the new episode of the "Economics out Loud" podcast with NES Visiting Professor Alexander Malanichev. By coincidence, he talked about the current energy crisis. There are many similarities between the shocks of the 1970s and the present day. For example, expensive oil and gas have become fuel for accelerating inflation. The rise in energy prices is fueled by political confrontation. Finally, Western economies again intend to come out of the crisis renewed and with smaller dependence on former suppliers and non-renewable energy sources in general. 

What will Europe face this winter? How will the oil and gas markets change? Will the West manage to deprive Russia of at least part of the petrodollars, and will Russia manage to redirect its oil and gas exports from Europe to Asia? What lessons can we learn from the 1970s? These questions were discussed in the podcast.


Will China Become a Window to the World Economy for Russia?

Over the past decade, the role of China in Russia’s foreign trade has grown significantly and now, most likely, it will become the country’s main trade partner, boasting a large margin from other countries, NES Professor and Director of the Center for Economic and Financial Research Natalya Volchkova says. It is China's stance that will largely determine Russia's life under sanctions, and at the same time, it can become a window to the world economy. The main takeaways from the "Economics out Loud" podcast with Natalya Volchkova follow below.



The Crooked Path of Central Banks

Who Killed the Phillips Curve? is the name of a paper by the US Fed's economists. The IMF, central banks and leading macroeconomists are all trying to understand what has happened to it and their interest is not theoretical at all. The answer to this question determines quite a lot, in particular, how much central banks should tighten their policy in order to curb inflation that has broken out of control.


Startup: Everything Changes and Nothing Stands Still

In a recent episode of the "Economics Out Loud" podcast, two NES graduates, Tamara Orlova, CFO at Flo Health (mobile app for women based on a menstrual cycle tracker), and Ekaterina Pranitskaya, Head of Product at Superdao (platform for start and manage decentralized autonomous organizations), talked about their personal experience. 



The Impact of Social Capital and Conformity on Self-Isolation Levels during Pandemic

We continue to share with our readers the most interesting, according to NES professors, graduation theses of NES students. Anastasia Khromenko from the NES-HSE Joint Bachelor of Arts in Economics Program, who had Professor Shlomo Weber as her academic adviser, talks about her research.



What Does the History of Defaults Teach Us?

In an episode of the “Economics Out Loud” podcast, NES Vice-Rector Maxim Bouev discussed with the podcast editor Philip Sterkin a recently announced default of Russia, which he considers a unique event. Why is the government doing the right thing by trying to pay off its debt? How has the debt structure changed over the course of history? What can be the impact of a default on the economy? Below, we share the main ideas of the episode. 


How to Analyze and Resolve Conflicts with the Help of Games?

Can game theory help in negotiations and resolution of interstate conflicts? How has regulation based on the Prisoner's Dilemma contributed to the fight against cartels in Europe? Why is it important to take into consideration future interactions for the game’s outcome? These and other questions were discussed in a recent episode of the "Economics Out Loud" podcast with NES Professor Sergei Izmalkov. GURU shares a summary of the episode.



How Can Language Policy Affect Economics?

In a recent episode of the “Economics Out Loud” podcast, President and Professor of the New Economic School Shlomo Weber talked about the interconnections between economics and language. How does language influence thinking? What does linguistic diversity bring? Why is economic policy important? We are sharing answers to these and other questions.




New Global Economic Architecture – What Can It Be?

In a recent episode of the “Economics Out Loud” podcast, NES Professor Konstantin Egorov and Professor of Economics at the University of California, Los Angeles Oleg Itskhoki discussed the future of the Russian economy, exchange rates, and the government’s capacity to stabilize the economy. The main takeaways follow below.


What Investing Mistakes People Make During a Crisis?

We devoted a recent episode of the "Economics Out Loud" podcast to personal finance, markets, and the approaching storm. NES graduate and professor at Michigan State University Dmitriy Muravyev talked about the future of the economy, inflation, and how an investor should behave in a crisis.



Should Politicians Control Civil Servants?

In his column for GURU, NES Professor Michele Valsecchi tells about his current research.